Our analysts have gone over hundreds of possible scenarios for the 2020 Presidential election and have compiled the most likely outcome. Considering a generic Democrat against incumbent President Donald Trump, we put together this nifty electoral map with the help of 270toWin.
Check it out:
At this point, we are predicting a landslide electoral win for the Democratic nominee.
Liberal strongholds like the Northeast and Pacific coast are not going to falter this cycle, as shown by the dark blue on the map. States that have traditionally voted Republican are less secure, as in the case of Texas and South Carolina, where many Conservative voters feel left behind in Trump's party. This does not mean that they will vote blue, but it does increase the likelihood that they stay home or vote third party on election day. Polls also suggest that moderates in these states are likely to vote Democratic.
One of the states that is likely to flip this cycle is Arizona - which saw Democrat Kyrsten Sinema narrowly edge out Republican Martha McSally in the 2018 Senate election. If that is any indication of the direction that things are going in the state, Trump will likely lose a narrow election there.
Polls in the rust belt show Trump's support slipping, with candidates like Joe Biden leading the President by double digits in Pennsylvania. Trump's message of economic prosperity may continue to resonate with many of the voters there, but the Rust belt is still plagued with a large population of unemployed workers as a result of automation and the outsourcing of labor to other parts of the world. After the 2016 election, Democrats are likely to spend much more time in this region, and we think that will make a difference.
That brings us to Florida, which has been a swing state for the better part of two decades. In the 2018 midterms, the state passed Amendment 4, which restored the voting rights of non-violent felons that have served their sentences - 1.4 million people. That is certainly enough to tip the scales one way or another. Based on the voting trends of these groups, it is most likely that Florida will be leaning blue for a few election cycles, starting in 2020.
All of that said, the map shows our first comprehensive prediction of the 2020 election. Depending on the Democratic nominee, and what happens between now and then, the map will change.